Jonathan on the run

                         
To become Nigeria’s president is like the Biblical race, which is said not to be for the swiftest. Unlike in more pedigreed democracies such as USA, UK, Canada, India and the lot, no person who has ever wanted to be president of Nigeria has achieved his ambition.

Just take a look: Prime Minister Abubakar Tafawa Balewa, President Shehu Shagari, President Olusegun Obasanjo, President Umaru Yar’Adua and President Goodluck Ebele Jonathan. Each of them had his eyes on something else much less. Balewa was handed the premiership by his political principal, Alhaji Ahmadu Bello, who preferred to stay home, govern the Northern Region and call the shots.hagari wanted to be a senator, but was chosen over more flamboyant and charismatic contenders. Obasanjo came out of jail and was totally disoriented when the offer to succeed the military came to him out of the blue in 1998.

Yar’Adua, a governor, wanted to go back to the university and teach science. Obasanjo dragged him into the race. Jonathan was eyeing a second term as governor of Bayelsa State when Obasanjo pulled him out to stand as ailing Yar’Adua’s running mate, perhaps with the shrewd knowledge that GEJ’s emergence as president was only a matter of time.

On the other hand, look what happened to hot button contenders for the top post: Dr Nnamdi Azikiwe, Chief Obafemi Awolowo, Chief Moshood Abiola, Gen Shehu Musa Yar’Adua, Chief Arthur Nzeribe, Malam Adamu Ciroma, Alhaji Umaru Shinkafi, Chief Bola Ige, Chief Olu Falae, Dr Alex Ekwueme, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, Gen Muhammadu Buhari… None of them smelt it. Some even died frustrated in the effort.

To be a Nigerian president, you have to seem uninterested, hoping your real or contrived apathy will be noticed by the man currently occupying the position but about to leave power. If you fight you will lose. But if you are favoured and you get in, you become a self-reinforcing political powerhouse able not only to stay out your maximum terms but also pick your successor. Same goes for the offices of governors.

That was what happened recently when President Goodluck Jonathan got the offer from all the organs of the ruling Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, and peripheral interest groups within the polity to stand as the sole candidate of the party for the 2015 presidential election. The PDP has now said it will not hold a presidential primary. No need. It will only stage a national convention to ratify the nomination.

But we hear that one Abdul Jhalil Tafawa Balewa, said to be a son of Nigeria’s first Prime Minister, has vowed to challenge GEJ for the PDP ticket. What a comic relief! Did he not hear what happened to Alhaji Sule Lamido, the charismatic, high performing Governor of Jigawa State? Lamido was one of the individuals that former President Obasanjo had approached to go and prepare to replace Jonathan.

The political romance between Obasanjo and GEJ had gone terribly sour and an angry OBJ decided that GEJ was “no longer electable”. Remember that letter to Obasanjo that President Jonathan wrote in January, describing OBJ as a goat seller who, after selling his goat, refuses to let go of the rope?!

OBJ started pussyfooting from Lamido’s Dutse to Rabiu Kwankwaso’s Kano telling them they had what it takes to replace GEJ. Then, recently, another presidential wannabe, Aminu Waziri Tambuwal, the Speaker of the House of Representatives, went to Ota to sell his own presidential dreams, perhaps on the platform of the rival All Progressives Congress, APC. Now that the game is in play and GEJ seems unstoppable, Obasanjo appears to have abandoned the people he incited to challenge GEJ.

In most democracies, whenever the incumbent who has not exhausted his constitutional chances for re-election indicates he wants to run again, he is usually favoured with the right of first refusal, except his performance could cause the party to lose the election. Everybody wants to be on the presidential or gubernatorial gravy train in the next four years.

But GEJ’s advantage is doubled by the fact that he has performed well above average. If you put matters sector by sector, Jonathan has done more than any other elected president since the end of the civil war. In such areas as agriculture, transport, works, power, aviation, education, investment and what have you, the President’s four-plus years have seen a steady resuscitation of collapsed sectors and their steady renewal unlike at any other time since 1970. And he has ensured that the goodies are evenly spread all over the country, eschewing marginalisation of any group.

I score him below average on the fight against corruption and the Boko Haram insurgency, but something tells me that GEJ has woken up against Boko Haram at last, and the end of this ugly menace could be in sight.

One of the greatest legacies of the Jonathan era so far is the growth of democracy under him. If not for the contrived Boko Haram insurgency which is being promoted by sectional devils who had threatened to make governance impossible for him unless he forgoes his constitutional rights to them, Nigerian would have experienced the greatest stability and peace under Jonathan compared to any other time. He has allowed free elections to hold, in which whoever wins is allowed to assume his mandate irrespective of political party. Under GEJ, losers have congratulated winners, and we have had the fewest post-election tribunal squabbles.

In fact, Jonathan’s peaceable dispensation and tolerance have allowed the opposition to grow and form into a rival coalition ready to mount, perhaps the strongest challenge against the ruling party.

The PDP has a very sellable candidate, and with their united front, the rival APC really has a herculean task in their quest to dethrone the ruling Party.